Breaking Down Simone Biles’ Chances to Win Record-Setting 5 Gold Medals in Paris

Biles competed in the qualification rounds Sunday morning. During warm-ups for her second routine, on floor exercise, she suffered an injury to her left calf and then spoke to the U.S. team doctor—sending chills up the spines of countless viewers who recalled her exit from the competition floor during the team final three years ago in Tokyo.

when the twisties took her out of contention for any gold medals. But this time, she returned to compete with her leg and ankle taped, showing minimal reaction to a series of tough landings on floor, vault and uneven bars to complete qualifications.

She exhibited a sense of humor throughout the competition, crawling past the vault runway after warming up there and smiling for the cameras there. Hoping to dispel rumors of a repeat Kerri Strug situation—when Strug gamely completed a vault in the 1996 team final on an obviously injured ankle—Biles’ coach, Cecile Landi, told reporters that the injury was not new, was not severe, and would not take Biles out of competition. Then she refused to answer further questions about the calf, telling reporters she would only discuss the entire team going forward.

Biles has qualified, with the rest of the American women, to the team final Tuesday. She will also compete in the four finals to which she qualified individually: the all-around final on Thursday, the vault final on Saturday, and the beam and floor finals on August 5. Some of those medals are as close to locks as you can get in a subjectively judged and notoriously risky sport, and some will be close calls.

What are Biles’ chances at each of the five gold medals for which she is now in contention?

Simone Biles reached that milestone in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. She was the first American woman to do so.

No female gymnast has ever won more than four gold medals in a single Olympics.